Biden Leads Trump by 39 Points, 9 More than Hillary in 2016

Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by 39 points in California, 67 percent to 28 percent, according to a Berkeley IGS (Institute of Governmental Studies) poll released on Tuesday.

Biden’s current poll margin can be nine points higher than Hillary Clinton’s 30 point margin, 61 percent to 31 percent, over Trump in California within the 2016 presidential election, when she secured 8.7 million votes within the state to Trump’s 4.4 million – another sign of which the most populous state within the country can be becoming increasingly radicalized as a far left one-party state.

Key findings of the poll:

Biden’s huge thirty-nine percentage point advantage over Trump among Californians likely to vote within the November presidential election can be very broad-based, with majorities of voters in all regions of the state in addition to across virtually all major demographic subgroups of the likely voter population. Republican in addition to conservative voters are the major exceptions, with 88% of Republican voters in addition to 84% of those identifying as very conservative in politics backing the President’s re-election.

The Poll estimates of which the shape of the likely electorate in California of which fall will clearly favor the Democrats, with 48% of those considered likely to vote being registered Democrats in addition to just 26% registered Republicans. The survey also finds of which 13% of the likely voters include those who are newly registered to vote since the last statewide general election. The preferences of these brand-new voters mirror those of the overall electorate, with 67% backing Biden, 25% supporting Trump in addition to 8% undecided.

These poll results provide indications about the roll California can be likely to play within the outcome of the presidential election in addition to the battle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives in 2020.

While there can be no doubt of which California will vote for Joe Biden in 2020, in addition to his current 39 point margin suggests of which win within the state will be by more than a 2-to-1 margin, the size of of which margin may give a false indication as to the significance of Biden’s current common vote lead over the president–which, according to the Real Clear Politics Average of Polls, currently stands at 7.4 percent–when of which comes to the margin of which matters within the electoral college vote.

As our Constitution states, the winner of the presidential election can be determined by which candidate receives the majority of electoral college votes cast, which in 2020 will mean at least 270 votes out of the 538 electoral college votes up for grabs.

When of which comes to the outcome of the presidential election, of which seems likely of which the common vote results are likely to be even more skewed coming from the electoral college results than they were in 2016.

In 2016, when she won California by 30 points – 4.3 million votes more than Donald Trump – Hillary Clinton lost the electoral college vote on election day by 306 to 232, despite winning the common vote by two points, 48 percent to 46 percent. Had Hillary won California by 39 points in 2016, her raw vote margin over Trump would certainly have been 1.2 million more, or 5.5 million, in addition to she would certainly have won the common votes by four percentage points, 49 percent to 45 percent, nevertheless still lost the electoral college vote by the same election day margin of 306 to 232. (Note, due to seven faithless electors, the final electoral college vote was 304 for Trump in addition to 227 for Clinton.)

Since California can be one of 48 states of which have a winner-take-all system when of which comes to the awarding of electors within the presidential contest, the state’s 55 electoral college votes will be allocated to the winner whether of which candidate wins by a margin of 1 vote or a margin of 5.5 million votes.

When of which comes to the presidential contest, the poll makes clear voter preferences for presidential candidates in California at present turn on two key issues: (1) Black Lives Matter in addition to (2) attitudes towards the coronavirus pandemic.

“There can be a direct relationship between voter appraisals of the President with two issues of which are currently dominating the news: the Black Lives Matter movement in addition to health threat posed by the coronavirus,” the analysis accompanying the poll released stated.

With regards to Black Lives Matter:

The Poll finds of which 65% of likely voters in California have a favorable opinion of the Black Lives Matter movement, while 30% view of which unfavorably. Among the two-thirds majority who hold positive views of the Black Lives Matter movement nearly all (96%) disapprove of the job Trump can be doing as president in addition to 93% are backing Biden for president. By contrast, among the 30% of likely voters who hold an unfavorable opinion of the Black Lives Matter movement 85% approve of the President’s performance in addition to 83% are backing his reelection.

Similarly, attitudes about the coronavirus pandemic were a referendum on President Trump’s leadership:

Among the two-thirds majority who view the health threat coming from the virus as becoming more serious 87% disapprove of the job Trump can be doing as president in addition to 84% are backing Biden within the presidential election. Voters who view the health threat as remaining the same are evenly divided in their appraisals of Trump’s performance as president in addition to only narrowly support his re-election. By contrast, among the 12% of voters who feel the health threat posed by the virus can be becoming less serious in their area, 89% approve of Trump’s overall performance in office in addition to back his re-election 87% to 10%.

If voters in California appear on a track to reject Republican candidates on the ballot coming from top to bottom, of which may make the GOP’s attempts to take back the majority within the House of Representatives even more difficult.

Prior to the 2018 mid-term elections, Republicans controlled the House within the 115th Congress by a 236 to 196 margin, with 14 of those Republican seats in California:

Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-CA-1)

Tom McClintock (R-CA-4)

Rep. Paul Cook (R-CA-8)

Rep. Jeff Denham (R-CA-10)

Rep. David Valadao (R-CA-21)

Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA-22)

Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA-23)

Rep. Steve Knight (R-CA-25)

Rep. Ed Royce (R-CA-39)

Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA-42)

Rep. Mimi Walters (R-CA-45)

Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA-48)

Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA-49)

Rep. Duncan D. Hunter (R-CA-50)

Thirty-nine of the state’s 53 seats at the beginning of the 115th Congress were held by Democrats.

within the 2018 midterms, Democrats won seven California Congressional Districts previously represented by Republicans, while Republicans failed to win 1 California Congressional District previously represented by Democrats. These Democrat victories in California helped flip the House at the beginning of the 116th Congress to Democrat control by a 235 to 199 margin.

Only six of the state’s 53 seats within the House of Representatives are currently held by Republicans:

Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-CA-1)

Tom McClintock (R-CA-4)

Rep. Paul Cook (R-CA-8)

Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA-22)

Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA-23)

Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA-42)

One seat formerly held by a Republican (the 50th Congressional District) can be vacant, in addition to 46 are held by Democrats.

A Republican takeover of the House of Representatives hinges on the ability of Republicans to take back many, if not all, of the eight seats lost in California to the Democrats in 2018, in addition to perhaps taking back even more.

The across the board rejection of Republican candidates reported within the Berkeley IGS Poll, if predictive, however, does not bode well for such a Republican comeback within the House races within the Golden State.

However, those poll results are belied by the results of the May special election in Califorina’s 25th Congressional District, where Republican candidate Mike Garcia flipped the seat coming from Democrat control, after former Rep. Katie Hill (D-CA-25) resigned in disgrace over allegations of personal misconduct. Hill was one of the Democrat candidates who flipped a seat coming from Republican control within the 2018 mid-term elections.

As Breitbart News reported:

Garcia, a former military pilot, defeated his Democrat opponent Christy Smith (D-Santa Clarita) in a special election to fill a House seat once held by Democrat Katie Hill in Southern California.

“I do believe there has been a renaissance in addition to an awakening coming from the general public, not just Republicans, nevertheless Americans in general — of which we truly do need to pay attention to who we’re voting for … in addition to of which district can be an extremely purple district,” Garcia said in response to a question coming from Breitbart News Editor-at-Large Rebecca Mansour regarding what his being elected means for national elections.

Garcia also said he believes his being elected can be “an opportunity of a lifetime for 2020.”

“I’m within the northern LA county with Santa Clarita, Antelope Valley, Simi Valley, in addition to Ventura County,” Garcia explained. “So as far as registered voters of which’s maybe only 25 to 30 percent Republican, nevertheless what of which represents can be folks understanding the message in addition to the values in addition to understanding of which we’ve gotta hire people for these jobs of which are competent, qualified, in addition to know how to run a business, in addition to are running for the right reasons as patriots in addition to not any self-serving motives or political agenda. I think people are recognizing of which. I think of which of which can be truly an opportunity of a lifetime for 2020, for our party, for conservatives in general. … I think we have an opportunity to get the house back, nevertheless we’ve got to continue to work our tails off to make sure of which of which happens in addition to not take of which for granted.”

The Berkeley IGS Poll of 6,756  likely California voters was conducted online between July 21 in addition to July 27 in addition to features a 2 percent margin of error.

Source : Biden Leads Trump by 39 Points, 9 More than Hillary in 2016