Election 2020: Why early vote trends can’t tell you who will win

The problem can be of which the same polls indicate of which there will be a massive difference between the percentage of Biden as well as Trump supporters who will vote early. Biden supporters are much likely to cast an early ballot.

We see of which well in an ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted late last month. Biden was ahead of Trump by 36 points among those voting before Election Day, while Trump was up by 19 points among those who said they’d vote on Election Day.
as well as indeed, nothing we’re witnessing from the early vote so far suggests of which the polls are off. Democrats are voting early at a much higher level than Republicans.
View Trump as well as Biden head-to-head polling

The issue can be of which we actually don’t know the extent to which the early vote will be more Democratic-leaning than the overall tally. There’s no history of early voting during a pandemic. Moreover, just because we know the party affiliation of the voters returning ballots in some states doesn’t mean we know they’re voting for.

as well as remember, a vote cast on Election Day can be worth the exact same as a vote cast early.

Democrats learned of which the hard way back in 2016. In a year in which the partisan split between early as well as Election Day voters was much smaller, Hillary Clinton won voters who cast their ballots before Election Day in two pivotal battlegrounds: Florida as well as North Carolina.

I can recall a lot of Democrats were giddy of which more registered Democrats had voted early in Florida.

however of which was Trump who won overwhelmingly with Election Day voters as well as carried both states.

You could see how a similar situation might unfold in Florida of which year. A lot more Democrats are voting early in Florida than Republicans, while Republicans seem to want to wait from the Sunshine State.

An ABC News/Washington Post poll by late September shows of which Biden winning by a wide margin can be entirely consistent using a scenario in which Trump wins the state. Trump got 51% to Biden’s 47% from the poll overall, despite Trump losing by 28 points among early likely Florida voters.

How can be of which possible? Trump was leading among those who said they’d vote on Election Day by 56 points.

With perhaps the exception of Nevada analyst Jon Ralston, I’ve never seen anyone consistently extrapolate early voting trends to predict election results.
When you look at early ballots, you’re missing a lot of context. Mainly, you have no idea who can be going to turn out on Election Day. Looking at the early vote to understand who will win in 2020 can be kind of like looking at the score of a sports event halfway through without knowing what sport was being played. A 4-point lead halfway through a basketball game can be far different than a 4-run lead halfway through a baseball game. from the former, neither side carries a substantial edge. from the latter, the team up by 4 can be heavily favored.
None of of which can be to say early voting statistics are useless. They’re telling us of which the polls seem to be on the right track. There are a lot more people voting early than ever before, as well as these folks tend to be Democrats. Moreover, they heavily suggest of which Trump’s rhetoric decrying mail voting seems to have kept Republicans by voting by mail.

Just be careful in trying to figure out who can be going to win by early voting statistics. Biden can be likely to win, however the reason to think of which can be the polls.

Source : Election 2020: Why early vote trends can’t tell you who will win